2020 Senate Projections

The 2020 Senate Race looks to be close as far as control of the Senate, and may even turn on the Presidential winner as the elected Vice President will be the tie-breaker vote in a 50-50 Senate.

Right now, the Senate is 53 GOP to 47 DEM.   There is a total of 35 Senate seats up for election.  Looking only at polling, 11 of them are close.  4 of those lean GOP, 4 lean DEM, and 3 are tossups.  The four Senate tossups are Montana, Iowa, Georgia.



The 538 Senate Forecast leans slightly GOP from the above map.  They show Maine as a tossup as well, and show GA and IA leaning blue.  All 3 calls make sense as they’re assuming an incumbent advantage in all 3.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball switches that up between ME and NC, calling North Carolina a tossup and showing Maine leaning blue.

It’s hard to say how the tragic passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg will effect the senate race, but so far there haven’t been any dramatic changes to polling.  Only the last dozen Senate polls published overlap with the date of her passing, September 18th.  (Respondents answered 16th – 20th) .  If anything there were a couple small moves towards Dems.


“Dissents speak to a future age. It’s not simply to say, ‘My colleagues are wrong and I would do it this way.’ But the greatest dissents do become court opinions and gradually over time their views become the dominant view. So that’s the dissenter’s hope: that they are writing not for today, but for tomorrow.” – Ruth Bader Ginsburg



2020 Biden vs Trump Swing States

From our 2020 Battleground Map , lets choose which states currently leaning Blue or Red, and get a look at the most unpredictable states this election, the swing states.

Tilt Democrat

Arizona , Wisconsin and Pennsylvania polling averages on sites like 538 and Real Clear Politics all show a Biden lead.  We’ll make them light blue for now.


Tilt Republican

Texas and Iowa both consistently have Trump leading in the polls. We’ll make them pink.


Swing States

We’re left with four Swing States, plus 2 congressional districts.  Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska-02 and Maine-02 .  If polling holds steady, these will be the states that will be tough to call on election night.



The Snake Chart

538 has a Snake chart that orders the states by their forecast margin of victory. We can see our Swing states , or  toss-ups are all close to the line between red and blue here. Forecasting a winner in these states will be an extra challenge.



45 days left

Biden has a decent lead right now.  While a lot can happen between now and the election, the electorate is extremely polarized.  Let’s watch for any signs of momentum , or changes in the above snake chart.   In that time, I hope to look at best case scenarios for both candidates, talk about election interference and cheating, and how that effects predictions, and finally get a better idea of who might come ahead in the Battleground and Swing States.


2020 Biden vs Trump Battleground States

There are 9 states to watch closely for the upcoming election.  Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Texas.  (plus 2 split districts, Maine 2, and Nebraska 2) .

With  these 9 states as tossups, the map above from 270towin.com shows a Biden win with several different combinations of just 2 more states. (Or just Florida).  A Trump win requires that he takes no less than 7 of these states.  Advantage Biden.

Polling confirms this advantage. Today’s Ipsos General Election poll has Biden ahead 50%-41%. This is in line with most recent polling

Let’s look at what the major forecasters say.

538’s 2020 Election Forecast

has Biden with a 75% chance of victory.   538’s National Polling average has Biden at 50% of the vote, Trump at 43%.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball 

mostly concurs with our battleground states above, but leans Pennsylvania blue along with Nebraska 02 , giving Biden the 269 Electoral votes needed for a tie.  For Trump, it shows Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Georgia leaning red.

Cook Political Report 

gives Biden and additional state, Wisconsin , to put him over the edge.  An article today Trump’s Ceiling Is Too Low for Him to Be Reelected by Charlie Cook postures that major changes to the map are unlikely, and concludes “Alan Greenspan’s irrational exuberance has given way, in my mind, to irrational caution. This is not 2016.” .

The Niskanen Center 

goes a step further, giving Biden Florida.  Rachel Bitecofer’s in depth analysis covers lots’ from hyper-partisanship to mismanagement of the pandemic, and why polling numbers have been stagnant for some time.

Under 50 days left

There’s still time left on the clock.  Four years ago, Hillary Clinton headed into the final month with a lead in the polls.  But we’re looking at a different world now.  Trump has the incumbent advantage, but has been impeached.  We’re in the middle of a global pandemic with little federal help in sight, yet the stock market remains indifferent.  Multiple investigations showed Russian interference in our last election, yet much of that information remains redacted.  So much has changed,  but it feels eerily similar to the 2016 election.  Let’s see how voters respond.