And here’s my Senate map. Dems should have all but sewn up the Senate despite losing Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama. I’m predicting additional pickups of Theresa Greenfield in Iowa and Steve Bullock in Montana. Despite a great campaign by Jamie Harrison , I’m expecting Lindsey Graham edges him out.
Also, coloring both Georgia senate seats blue is pretty bold. To be exact, I think Jon Ossoff will win outright with 50% of the vote, and Rev Warnock will win a plurality, then later prevail in a runoff.
That’s right , I’m in the 413 Club, as optimists on Twitter are calling this popular map. I’m counting on the late momentum for Biden to continue into election day enough for the historic result of a blue Texas.
538’s final map has red Texas , Iowa and Ohio for a total of 351 EVs for Joe. Sabato’s crystal Ball takes Florida and ME-02 away from Biden giving him 321. There’s some wilder maps than that out there, but a Biden victory is looking good.
Cook Political Report has released it’s final House estimates, with 26 seats listed as tossups. If all those tossups went Republican, Democrats would hold The House of Representatives with 228 seats. If we give them all to Democrats , that’s at total of 254 Democrat seats. After shuffling a couple around, giving Republicans Justin Amash’s old seat in Michigan, and giving Democrats and upset victory in FL-15 , Ross Spano’s old seat, I’ve come to the same result. I’m predicting a 254 – 181 Democrat controlled House.
538’s Congressional House forecast shows a most likely scenario of around 240 Democrat seats. I’m assuming a little better Biden coat tails than that. 538’s bell curve of probabilities shows 254 seats on the high end of their 80 percentile outcome window, and a bout a 1.5% chance of Democrat’s getting exactly 254 seats.