Cook Political Report has released it’s final House estimates, with 26 seats listed as tossups. If all those tossups went Republican, Democrats would hold The House of Representatives with 228 seats. If we give them all to Democrats , that’s at total of 254 Democrat seats. After shuffling a couple around, giving Republicans Justin Amash’s old seat in Michigan, and giving Democrats and upset victory in FL-15 , Ross Spano’s old seat, I’ve come to the same result. I’m predicting a 254 – 181 Democrat controlled House.
538’s Congressional House forecast shows a most likely scenario of around 240 Democrat seats. I’m assuming a little better Biden coat tails than that. 538’s bell curve of probabilities shows 254 seats on the high end of their 80 percentile outcome window, and a bout a 1.5% chance of Democrat’s getting exactly 254 seats.