2020 Senate Projections

The 2020 Senate Race looks to be close as far as control of the Senate, and may even turn on the Presidential winner as the elected Vice President will be the tie-breaker vote in a 50-50 Senate.

Right now, the Senate is 53 GOP to 47 DEM.   There is a total of 35 Senate seats up for election.  Looking only at polling, 11 of them are close.  4 of those lean GOP, 4 lean DEM, and 3 are tossups.  The four Senate tossups are Montana, Iowa, Georgia.



The 538 Senate Forecast leans slightly GOP from the above map.  They show Maine as a tossup as well, and show GA and IA leaning blue.  All 3 calls make sense as they’re assuming an incumbent advantage in all 3.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball switches that up between ME and NC, calling North Carolina a tossup and showing Maine leaning blue.

It’s hard to say how the tragic passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg will effect the senate race, but so far there haven’t been any dramatic changes to polling.  Only the last dozen Senate polls published overlap with the date of her passing, September 18th.  (Respondents answered 16th – 20th) .  If anything there were a couple small moves towards Dems.


“Dissents speak to a future age. It’s not simply to say, ‘My colleagues are wrong and I would do it this way.’ But the greatest dissents do become court opinions and gradually over time their views become the dominant view. So that’s the dissenter’s hope: that they are writing not for today, but for tomorrow.” – Ruth Bader Ginsburg



2020 Biden vs Trump Swing States

From our 2020 Battleground Map , lets choose which states currently leaning Blue or Red, and get a look at the most unpredictable states this election, the swing states.

Tilt Democrat

Arizona , Wisconsin and Pennsylvania polling averages on sites like 538 and Real Clear Politics all show a Biden lead.  We’ll make them light blue for now.


Tilt Republican

Texas and Iowa both consistently have Trump leading in the polls. We’ll make them pink.


Swing States

We’re left with four Swing States, plus 2 congressional districts.  Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska-02 and Maine-02 .  If polling holds steady, these will be the states that will be tough to call on election night.



The Snake Chart

538 has a Snake chart that orders the states by their forecast margin of victory. We can see our Swing states , or  toss-ups are all close to the line between red and blue here. Forecasting a winner in these states will be an extra challenge.



45 days left

Biden has a decent lead right now.  While a lot can happen between now and the election, the electorate is extremely polarized.  Let’s watch for any signs of momentum , or changes in the above snake chart.   In that time, I hope to look at best case scenarios for both candidates, talk about election interference and cheating, and how that effects predictions, and finally get a better idea of who might come ahead in the Battleground and Swing States.


2020 Biden vs Trump Battleground States

There are 9 states to watch closely for the upcoming election.  Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Texas.  (plus 2 split districts, Maine 2, and Nebraska 2) .

With  these 9 states as tossups, the map above from 270towin.com shows a Biden win with several different combinations of just 2 more states. (Or just Florida).  A Trump win requires that he takes no less than 7 of these states.  Advantage Biden.

Polling confirms this advantage. Today’s Ipsos General Election poll has Biden ahead 50%-41%. This is in line with most recent polling

Let’s look at what the major forecasters say.

538’s 2020 Election Forecast

has Biden with a 75% chance of victory.   538’s National Polling average has Biden at 50% of the vote, Trump at 43%.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball 

mostly concurs with our battleground states above, but leans Pennsylvania blue along with Nebraska 02 , giving Biden the 269 Electoral votes needed for a tie.  For Trump, it shows Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Georgia leaning red.

Cook Political Report 

gives Biden and additional state, Wisconsin , to put him over the edge.  An article today Trump’s Ceiling Is Too Low for Him to Be Reelected by Charlie Cook postures that major changes to the map are unlikely, and concludes “Alan Greenspan’s irrational exuberance has given way, in my mind, to irrational caution. This is not 2016.” .

The Niskanen Center 

goes a step further, giving Biden Florida.  Rachel Bitecofer’s in depth analysis covers lots’ from hyper-partisanship to mismanagement of the pandemic, and why polling numbers have been stagnant for some time.

Under 50 days left

There’s still time left on the clock.  Four years ago, Hillary Clinton headed into the final month with a lead in the polls.  But we’re looking at a different world now.  Trump has the incumbent advantage, but has been impeached.  We’re in the middle of a global pandemic with little federal help in sight, yet the stock market remains indifferent.  Multiple investigations showed Russian interference in our last election, yet much of that information remains redacted.  So much has changed,  but it feels eerily similar to the 2016 election.  Let’s see how voters respond.

2016 Final Electoral Vote Count

2016 Final Electoral Vote Count

Here’s my prediction:

Clinton win probability: 99% *

Clinton: 378

Trump: 160

Confidence: 22%

Margin of error: +-30 electoral votes **

Senate: 51 Democrats

2016 Final Electoral Prediction

In the 2012 map prediction, I relied on projecting momentum into the final day. While this election is very different, we’re in a similar situation with momentum. Today’s Dow Jones Average surged nearly 400 points on the news that the FBI was done inve … more

Vietnam travel for those aged three months to six decades; what NOT to do

My list trip to Bac Ninh with my wife was for our wedding. My brother in law Harry and I made a deal to try to accompany each other for future trips, because it goes more smoothly to put it mildly. It looks like I let him down this time. Read about Harry and the Vietnamese family’s latest trip here.


Scenes from Bac Ninh and Hanoi Scenes from Bac Ninh and Hanoi

Scenes from Bac Ninh and Hanoi Scenes from Bac Ninh and Hanoi

Scenes from Bac Ninh and Hanoi Scenes from Bac Ninh and Hanoi

Scenes from Bac Ninh and Hanoi Scenes from Bac Ninh and Hanoi

Scenes from Bac Ninh and Hanoi Scenes from Bac Ninh and Hanoi

Scenes from Bac Ninh and Hanoi Scenes from Bac Ninh and Hanoi

By Harry Hodge
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Well, mostly it was the worst. It was our family trip to Hanoi.
The kicker was this trip had so many moving parts: My newborn son Payton is only three months old; my mother- and father-in-law are not frequent travellers; getting around Vietnam is generally stressful enough when it only travels one person, etc.
But my wife My’s family lives mostly in a small village in Bac Ninh, a province over from Hanoi. It seemed like we could swing a six-day trip up there and everything would fall into place. Short flight, inexpensive (staying with family) and so on.

View original post 940 more words

This day 2 years ago. Day 1.

God bless Luca and his family.


August 28, 2014. Thursday. One of the greatest and craziest days of my life. I became a father.

My wife was scheduled for a c-section to deliver our first child, our son Luca, who would be born with a Congenital heart defect called hypoplastic left heart syndrome that required immediate open heart surgery.

We left our Redondo beach condo for the hospital around 6am and drove to Hollywood Presbyterian where Luca was scheduled to be delivered before he would be transferred to Children’s Hospital Los Angeles. Before arrival to the hospital we checked into our room at the Los Angeles Ronald McDonald House where families stay when they have children or family being treated at CHLA, which was conveniently just only one block away.

After waiting for hours while preparations were ongoing, Megan went back to the delivery room before me as I waited in the hallway so she could…

View original post 741 more words

Could the 2016 Presidential Election end in a tie?

I’m trying out medium.com, Just published the following there:

It isn’t hard to predict who will win an election within the Electoral College system. Predicting the future is a different story, but elections held today or tomorrow are fairly easy to forecast. Here we’ll look at the electoral college system, the tools available to analyze polls , then try creating an electoral college map … (more on medium)

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

trumpWap – Make the web great again

This is fantastic, I’d love to bring TrumpWap to a coffee shop and name the access point “Google Starbucks” and enjoy the show.


Remember when almost every image on the internet was trump?

With trumpWAP, we can make the web great again. This is huge.


Plug in the trumpWap and on day-1 you’ll get between 20% and 90% more trump (depending on your browsing habits). It’s that simple.


Continue reading for more examples of trumped up websites & apps, a perfunctory video demonstration, and info on getting your own trumpWAP!

View original post 310 more words

20 Great Hospitals for Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome

A couple weeks ago our prenatal son was diagnosed with Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome (HLHS).   A doctor in Ho Chi Minh City told us he will need 3 operations the first few years of his life, and has about a 50% chance of surviving them.

The baby who keeps on fighting

The baby who keeps on fighting


Improving the odds

I’ve since found that his chances are much better if operated on in the United States. Children’s hospitals with good congenital heart programs boast survival rates as high as 80 to 95%.  Centers and surgeons who perform more surgeries have higher survival rates. (– Relative Impact of Surgeon and Center Volume on Early Mortality Following the Norwood Operation, Christoph P. Hornik, et al.)

The Norwood Procedure

The Norwood procedure (or a hybrid) is the first step in treating HLHS.   Compiled from the best children’s hospitals in the country, Here are 20 great hospitals that have a significant volume of Norwood procedures combined with excellent survival rates.

The best hospitals for the Norwood procedure are dispersed across the country, with clustering around population centers. In selecting these 20, I looked at four criteria, Norwood survival rates, Norwood volume, Congenital heart program rating, and infection prevention rating. This data comes from the US News Best Hospitals for Pediatric Cardiology & Heart Surgery rankings.  Clicking on a hospital in that list, such as Boston Children’s hospital,  shows a breakdown of categories.  On that page, scrolling down and clicking on Cardiology and Heart Surgery reveals key criteria, such as Norwood/hybrid surgery survival. Here’s the combined data for the 20 great hospitals for Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome.

Norwood survival rates

Obviously the biggest concern is survival after the Norwood procedure.  However, hospitals have different criteria for which patients they accept.  Some hospitals avoid high risk cases, while the best hospitals take the riskier cases.  So hospitals not equipped to handle the hardest cases may have artificially high survival rates. After comparing survival rates, it’s important to consider additional criteria.

Norwood volume

The relationship between number of procedures performed and survival rates is well established.  The  Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome (HLHS) Information Page says

Remember that the top hospitals perform 50+ Norwoods annually, and achieve approximately a 95% survival rate – this is the bar to which you should compare any hospital.

They also encourage us to ask for this data from hospitals we are considering for treatment.

Congenital heart program rating

The hospitals overall Congenital heart rating is important, because after the Norwood procedure, your child will require the Bi-directional Glenn Operation at around 6 months to a year, and the Fontan Operation at around 18 to 36 months.  You’ll probably want these procedures done at the same hospital.

Infection prevention rating.

This is another important indicator of the overall quality of the hospital. Most of the hospitals ranked by US News fare very well in this category.  In hindsight, this ranking has little to do with which hospitals made this list.  However it’s an important consideration particularly when looking at hospitals in developing countries.

The most important criteria

Your Support system  is more important than any of the criteria above.  The map shows that in the United States, there is a hospital near you.  There are dozens of additional children’s hospitals ranked by US News that are well equipped to perform the Norwood procedure.  So it’s important to get treatment near Family and friends.

Additional Support

Little Hearts Picnic

The  Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome (HLHS) Information Page list’s several support groups including California Heart ConnectionLittle Hearts, Inc., The Congenital Heart Information Network.   Linked by Heart connects families affected by HLHS.


Picture of Hope

Your family’s most powerful weapon is hope.  Staying positive, eating healthy, exercising, and talking to your child in the womb all strengthen the child’s inherent resolve to live and have an incalculable effect on the odds beyond any choice of hospitals. The picture above includes some children born with HLHS who are now in college. The struggle to live a meaningful life continues for every one of us.  As you shift your focus to this struggle for your child, it is my hope that it leads to happiness and fulfillment you never imagined.