Since looking at 2020 Biden vs Trump Swing States last month, things have moved in Joe Biden’s favor.
Florida is now leaning blue. Three high quality polls out today show Biden leading, Monmouth, Marist, and Quinnipiac. Also Democrats have an impressive lead from mail in ballots, that so far Republicans have not quite overcome with Early voting. As the last weekend of Early voting tends to favor Democrats, it seems unlikely that they will. In addition, Biden’s strong showing with Independents along with and advantage with crossover voters should close the deal for him in The Sunshine State.
North Carolina also leans blue now. The final NY Times/Sienna College poll there gives Biden a 3% advantage. It’s a close one, but other polls concur. Like in Florida, North Carolina’s Democrats have a significant lead in mail in ballots.
Texas and Iowa both have moved significantly in Biden’s favor. If that momentum continues into next week, we’ll be looking at a landslide Biden victory. For now, they’re tossups along with Georgia and Ohio. It was tempting to shade Ohio pink this morning, but this Quinnipiac poll today showing Biden up by 5% leaves it a tossup for now.
That’s the final Swing State Map.
Coming soon, we’ll try to verify these guesses with the scheduled final polling.
Then lastly, we’ll try to predict the winner of Texas, Iowa, Georgia and Ohio.