From our 2020 Battleground Map , lets choose which states currently leaning Blue or Red, and get a look at the most unpredictable states this election, the swing states.
Texas and Iowa both consistently have Trump leading in the polls. We’ll make them pink.
We’re left with four Swing States, plus 2 congressional districts. Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska-02 and Maine-02 . If polling holds steady, these will be the states that will be tough to call on election night.
The Snake Chart
538 has a Snake chart that orders the states by their forecast margin of victory. We can see our Swing states , or toss-ups are all close to the line between red and blue here. Forecasting a winner in these states will be an extra challenge.
45 days left
Biden has a decent lead right now. While a lot can happen between now and the election, the electorate is extremely polarized. Let’s watch for any signs of momentum , or changes in the above snake chart. In that time, I hope to look at best case scenarios for both candidates, talk about election interference and cheating, and how that effects predictions, and finally get a better idea of who might come ahead in the Battleground and Swing States.