There are 9 states to watch closely for the upcoming election. Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Texas. (plus 2 split districts, Maine 2, and Nebraska 2) .
With these 9 states as tossups, the map above from 270towin.com shows a Biden win with several different combinations of just 2 more states. (Or just Florida). A Trump win requires that he takes no less than 7 of these states. Advantage Biden.
Polling confirms this advantage. Today’s Ipsos General Election poll has Biden ahead 50%-41%. This is in line with most recent polling
Let’s look at what the major forecasters say.
has Biden with a 75% chance of victory. 538’s National Polling average has Biden at 50% of the vote, Trump at 43%.
mostly concurs with our battleground states above, but leans Pennsylvania blue along with Nebraska 02 , giving Biden the 269 Electoral votes needed for a tie. For Trump, it shows Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Georgia leaning red.
gives Biden and additional state, Wisconsin , to put him over the edge. An article today Trump’s Ceiling Is Too Low for Him to Be Reelected by Charlie Cook postures that major changes to the map are unlikely, and concludes “Alan Greenspan’s irrational exuberance has given way, in my mind, to irrational caution. This is not 2016.” .
goes a step further, giving Biden Florida. Rachel Bitecofer’s in depth analysis covers lots’ from hyper-partisanship to mismanagement of the pandemic, and why polling numbers have been stagnant for some time.
Under 50 days left
There’s still time left on the clock. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton headed into the final month with a lead in the polls. But we’re looking at a different world now. Trump has the incumbent advantage, but has been impeached. We’re in the middle of a global pandemic with little federal help in sight, yet the stock market remains indifferent. Multiple investigations showed Russian interference in our last election, yet much of that information remains redacted. So much has changed, but it feels eerily similar to the 2016 election. Let’s see how voters respond.