2020 Senate Projections

The 2020 Senate Race looks to be close as far as control of the Senate, and may even turn on the Presidential winner as the elected Vice President will be the tie-breaker vote in a 50-50 Senate.

Right now, the Senate is 53 GOP to 47 DEM.   There is a total of 35 Senate seats up for election.  Looking only at polling, 11 of them are close.  4 of those lean GOP, 4 lean DEM, and 3 are tossups.  The four Senate tossups are Montana, Iowa, Georgia.



The 538 Senate Forecast leans slightly GOP from the above map.  They show Maine as a tossup as well, and show GA and IA leaning blue.  All 3 calls make sense as they’re assuming an incumbent advantage in all 3.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball switches that up between ME and NC, calling North Carolina a tossup and showing Maine leaning blue.

It’s hard to say how the tragic passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg will effect the senate race, but so far there haven’t been any dramatic changes to polling.  Only the last dozen Senate polls published overlap with the date of her passing, September 18th.  (Respondents answered 16th – 20th) .  If anything there were a couple small moves towards Dems.


“Dissents speak to a future age. It’s not simply to say, ‘My colleagues are wrong and I would do it this way.’ But the greatest dissents do become court opinions and gradually over time their views become the dominant view. So that’s the dissenter’s hope: that they are writing not for today, but for tomorrow.” – Ruth Bader Ginsburg