After being impeached for cheating in this election, some lawmakers voted not to convict Trump, hoping “he’d learn his lesson” . Already , in light of many antics from the likes of Rudy Giuliani, we know that didn’t happen.
However , all that matters when trying to predict outcomes, is will any cheating attempts be successful?
A quick glance at 538 odds shows an 89% chance of a Biden victory. Real Clear Politics average of gambling odds shows around 66% chance of victory for Biden. 538 doesn’t take into account any chance of cheating, or other external factors. Outside of polls, and prior voting records, why the difference? Gambler’s money isn’t an exact predictor of outcomes, but neither are polls, or the experts at 538. But the chance off a successful cheat are likely a small portion of that difference. So it’s probably something significantly less than 20%.
Also, cheating can only get you so far. With Biden’s lead fairly big right now, many nefarious actors wouldn’t want to take on the risk of cheating, given it probably wouldn’t help. If a win was likely, perhaps the Giuliani and William Barr types could count on a pardon if they were caught.
In a football game, when the score is close, you’ll see more calls for pass interference and holding, as the stakes are high. But when a team is down, cheating is just not worth the effort. So the odds of a successful cheat are dwindling.
Now, if, on election night, we see Trump magically winning in states he polled poorly, like Michigan and Wisconsin, it would bring back memories of the same in 2016; that feeling from 9/11 of watching the second plane hit the building, and knowing for sure at that moment the first plane was not some unfortunate accident, but we were under attack.
Thankfully, a nefarious outcome looks less and less likely as we approach election day.
So to keep things simple, we assume no successful cheating with any predictions here.