Final Electoral Vote Count

Here’s my prediction.

Obama: 332
Romney: 206

This map gives virtually every very swing state to Obama, with the exception of North Carolina. This outcome is very possible since Obama has led in most polls in each of these states.

I’ve also taken into account momentum, which has been in Obama’s favor recently. His polling number s have improved since Romney’s momentum seemed to peak around the time I posted Congratulations President Romney.  Note that in that map, Romney still had to win 2 of 4 states in which he now trails in the polls.  Also,  I gave him Virginia and Florida which I now give to Obama.

 Congratulations President Obama shows a scenario with Obama winning without Florida or Virginia.  In this case he needs Ohio (or Colorado and Nevada).  Ohio remains critical.

In short, Romney needs to win several states where he is trailing.  Obama has many paths to victory where he doesn’t need a particular state, yet he leads polling in most of the states he doesn’t need.

Finally, further evidence of Obama’s momentum is found in the online gambling sites, which last week had Obama as a 3 to 1 favorite, and now show him ahead as much as 45 to 1.

So it looks like Obama gets to keep his job, which should boost employment figures at least by 1.


Congratulations President Romney

If the election were held today, It’s a toss-up. But Romney wins the popular vote. One state would decide the election, if held today. Ohio.

With the momentum from the Popular vote, I suspect Romney would carry Ohio.

However these polls were all taken before the last debate, which was also considered a toss-up.  It remains to be seen if  Obama has stopped the momentum Romney has built from the first debate.  But since my earlier post congratulated President Obama, I decided now was a good time to give Romney credit for quite a comeback.

Obama still has a distinct advantage.  If he sweeps the other 3 tan states in this map, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire, he doesn’t need Ohio.  Romney does need Ohio.   Bookies still favor Obama, and pay 2 to 1 for a Romney victory.  But it’s gonna be a close one.