Here’s my prediction.
This map gives virtually every very swing state to Obama, with the exception of North Carolina. This outcome is very possible since Obama has led in most polls in each of these states.
I’ve also taken into account momentum, which has been in Obama’s favor recently. His polling number s have improved since Romney’s momentum seemed to peak around the time I posted Congratulations President Romney. Note that in that map, Romney still had to win 2 of 4 states in which he now trails in the polls. Also, I gave him Virginia and Florida which I now give to Obama.
Congratulations President Obama shows a scenario with Obama winning without Florida or Virginia. In this case he needs Ohio (or Colorado and Nevada). Ohio remains critical.
In short, Romney needs to win several states where he is trailing. Obama has many paths to victory where he doesn’t need a particular state, yet he leads polling in most of the states he doesn’t need.
Finally, further evidence of Obama’s momentum is found in the online gambling sites, which last week had Obama as a 3 to 1 favorite, and now show him ahead as much as
45 to 1.
So it looks like Obama gets to keep his job, which should boost employment figures at least by 1.